Chapter 4.6.1: January Peak Demand vs Wind

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The bottom of this graph is the number of hours within 10% of the January 2010 peak demand.  The graphs above that are each wind project’s Hourly Capacity Factor.

3 days stand out with more than 10 hours in the day of within 10% of the peak.  These hours, 105 of them, is 14% of the hours in the month.  So 14% of the time in Jan 2010 the demand was within the top 10%.

You can see that the wind does not match up well with the demand.  All other power production sources can take up this demand as needed, except wind.

The Capacity Value is the output from wind when demand is within 10% of peak.   In tabular form this is the Capacity Values for each project:

Capacity Values Median Average SD Skew % Zero
AMARANTH 19% 25.2% 25.1% 0.968 17%
KINGSBRIDGE 12% 28.6% 33.6% 0.966 21%
PORT ALMA 33% 42.3% 36.3% 0.341 11%
PORT BURWELL 15% 27.6% 31.1% 1.129 17%
PRINCEFARM 16% 21.5% 18.8% 1.106 11%
RIPLEY SOUTH 19% 29.2% 30.7% 0.841 19%
UNDERWOODWGS 18% 30.9% 30.1% 0.831 9%
WOLFE ISLAND 12% 26.9% 33.0% 1.300 10%

The numbers look good, until you see the count of hours for each percent name plate:

You can now see that the numbers in the chart don’t tell the whole story.  Graphically you get a much better understanding of what is going on, what each site is producing, when we need the power the most.

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