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This is map of the wind projects, done and under construction.
The Ontario Power Authority has data on all the farms, current and in the pipe coming here. What is interesting is that each project has what they expect to be the generated output per year. For example, for Amaranth:
When completed, it is estimated this phase of the wind plant will generate over 350,000 megawatt-hours per year of renewable energy.
This is firm generation, not capacity they are refering to. Se let’s have a look and see if the actual physical output matches their expectation:
| WindFarm | Capacity | Turbines | Name Plate |
Per Year mWh |
Yearly Capacity |
Capacity Factor |
| AMARANTH | 200 | 133 | 1.5 | 527,000 | 1,752,000 | 30.1% |
| KINGSBRIDGE | 40 | 22 | 1.5 | 109,000 | 350,400 | 31.1% |
| PORT ALMA | 101 | 44 | 2.3 | 300,000 | 884,760 | 33.9% |
| PORT BURWELL | 99 | 66 | 1.5 | 278,000 | 867,240 | 32.1% |
| PRINCEFARM | 189 | 126 | 1.5 | 527,000 | 1,655,640 | 31.8% |
| RIPLEY SOUTH | 76 | 38 | 1.5 | 216,000 | 665,760 | 32.4% |
| UNDERWOODWGS | 182 | 110 | 1.65 | 622,000 | 1,594,320 | 39.0% |
| WOLFE ISLAND | 198 | 86 | 2.3 | 593,500 | 1,734,480 | 34.2% |
| Actual Output mWh | ||||||
| WindFarm | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 (so far) |
2010 (proj) |
| AMARANTH | 119,781 | 186,524 | 236,885 | 437,253 | 271,285 | 417,802 |
| KINGSBRIDGE | 74,975 | 118,441 | 115,303 | 102,548 | 56,114 | 86,420 |
| PORT ALMA | 118,640 | 311,488 | 187,913 | 289,402 | ||
| PORT BURWELL | 122,688 | 243,146 | 253,830 | 232,274 | 132,801 | 204,525 |
| PRINCEFARM | 100,592 | 478,314 | 456,083 | 432,582 | 251,801 | 387,795 |
| RIPLEY SOUTH | 15,243 | 214,970 | 187,945 | 108,173 | 166,596 | |
| UNDERWOODWGS | 27,307 | 398,555 | 252,586 | 389,004 | ||
| WOLFE ISLAND | 216,250 | 273,085 | 420,574 | |||
| Deviation from OPA claim | ||||||
| WindFarm | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010(so far) | 2010(proj) |
| AMARANTH | 22.7% | 35.4% | 44.9% | 83.0% | 51.5% | 79.3% |
| KINGSBRIDGE | 68.8% | 108.7% | 105.8% | 94.1% | 51.5% | 79.3% |
| PORT ALMA | 39.5% | 103.8% | 62.6% | 96.5% | ||
| PORT BURWELL | 44.1% | 87.5% | 91.3% | 83.6% | 47.8% | 73.6% |
| PRINCEFARM | 19.1% | 90.8% | 86.5% | 82.1% | 47.8% | 73.6% |
| RIPLEY SOUTH | 7.1% | 99.5% | 87.0% | 50.1% | 77.1% | |
| UNDERWOODWGS | 4.4% | 64.1% | 40.6% | 62.5% | ||
| WOLFE ISLAND | 36.4% | 46.0% | 70.9% | |||
| Actual percent of Capacity | ||||||
| WindFarm | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010(so far) | 2010(proj) |
| AMARANTH | 6.8% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 25.0% | 15.5% | 23.8% |
| KINGSBRIDGE | 21.4% | 33.8% | 32.9% | 29.3% | 16.0% | 24.7% |
| PORT ALMA | 13.4% | 35.2% | 21.2% | 32.7% | ||
| PORT BURWELL | 14.1% | 28.0% | 29.3% | 26.8% | 15.3% | 23.6% |
| PRINCEFARM | 6.1% | 28.9% | 27.5% | 26.1% | 15.2% | 23.4% |
| RIPLEY SOUTH | 2.3% | 32.3% | 28.2% | 16.2% | 25.0% | |
| UNDERWOODWGS | 1.7% | 25.0% | 15.8% | 24.4% | ||
| WOLFE ISLAND | 12.5% | 15.7% | 24.2% | |||
Clearly the OPA’s numbers are optomistic, one would expect some years to be better than others. But clearly the 30% or more of name plate in actual generation they expect is closer to 24%.
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http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketreports/OPA-Report-200610-1.pdf
GE Energy has already told the OPA that 20% is a good number. Although they admit that highest peak loads occur in the summer months when actual wind capacity will fall below 17%.
So either GE is very conservative or OPA is overstating actual output.
I am also getting very tired of the ‘renewable energy’ nomenclature, which is a play on words. We should be referring to intermittent energy sources.
John:
I think a lot of people got “sucked in” with the hype. It would explain a lot of the inflated expectations.
Strangely enough performance figures were available before Ontario brought in the GEA. By Spring 2009 Spain was already aware of the economic devastation caused by the green energy programs they had implemented.
Succinctly stated there was no need for this boondoggle!