Chapter 4.4: Individual IWT Projects

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This is map of the wind projects, done and under construction.

The Ontario Power Authority has data on all the farms, current and in the pipe coming here. What is interesting is that each project has what they expect to be the generated output per year.  For example, for Amaranth:

When completed, it is estimated this phase of the wind plant will generate over 350,000 megawatt-hours per year of renewable energy.

This is firm generation, not capacity they are refering to.  Se let’s have a look and see if the actual physical output matches their expectation:

WindFarm Capacity Turbines Name
Plate
Per
Year mWh
Yearly
Capacity
Capacity
Factor
AMARANTH 200 133 1.5  527,000 1,752,000 30.1%
KINGSBRIDGE 40 22 1.5  109,000 350,400 31.1%
PORT ALMA 101 44 2.3   300,000  884,760 33.9%
PORT BURWELL 99 66 1.5   278,000     867,240 32.1%
PRINCEFARM 189 126 1.5 527,000 1,655,640 31.8%
RIPLEY SOUTH 76 38 1.5    216,000    665,760 32.4%
UNDERWOODWGS 182 110 1.65   622,000 1,594,320 39.0%
WOLFE ISLAND 198 86 2.3   593,500 1,734,480 34.2%
 
Actual Output mWh
WindFarm 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
(so far)
2010 (proj)
AMARANTH      119,781     186,524      236,885      437,253      271,285  417,802
KINGSBRIDGE       74,975      118,441      115,303      102,548        56,114 86,420
PORT ALMA          118,640      311,488      187,913  289,402
PORT BURWELL      122,688      243,146      253,830      232,274      132,801  204,525
PRINCEFARM      100,592      478,314      456,083      432,582      251,801  387,795
RIPLEY SOUTH         15,243      214,970      187,945     108,173  166,596
UNDERWOODWGS           27,307      398,555      252,586  389,004
WOLFE ISLAND            216,250      273,085  420,574
 
Deviation from OPA claim
WindFarm 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(so far) 2010(proj)
AMARANTH 22.7% 35.4% 44.9% 83.0% 51.5% 79.3%
KINGSBRIDGE 68.8% 108.7% 105.8% 94.1% 51.5% 79.3%
PORT ALMA     39.5% 103.8% 62.6% 96.5%
PORT BURWELL 44.1% 87.5% 91.3% 83.6% 47.8% 73.6%
PRINCEFARM 19.1% 90.8% 86.5% 82.1% 47.8% 73.6%
RIPLEY SOUTH   7.1% 99.5% 87.0% 50.1% 77.1%
UNDERWOODWGS     4.4% 64.1% 40.6% 62.5%
WOLFE ISLAND       36.4% 46.0% 70.9%
 
Actual percent of Capacity
WindFarm 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(so far) 2010(proj)
AMARANTH 6.8% 10.6% 13.5% 25.0% 15.5% 23.8%
KINGSBRIDGE 21.4% 33.8% 32.9% 29.3% 16.0% 24.7%
PORT ALMA     13.4% 35.2% 21.2% 32.7%
PORT BURWELL 14.1% 28.0% 29.3% 26.8% 15.3% 23.6%
PRINCEFARM 6.1% 28.9% 27.5% 26.1% 15.2% 23.4%
RIPLEY SOUTH   2.3% 32.3% 28.2% 16.2% 25.0%
UNDERWOODWGS     1.7% 25.0% 15.8% 24.4%
WOLFE ISLAND       12.5% 15.7% 24.2%

Clearly the OPA’s numbers are optomistic, one would expect some years to be better than others.  But clearly the 30% or more of name plate in actual generation they expect is closer to 24%.


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2 Responses to Chapter 4.4: Individual IWT Projects

  1. john hare says:

    http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketreports/OPA-Report-200610-1.pdf

    GE Energy has already told the OPA that 20% is a good number. Although they admit that highest peak loads occur in the summer months when actual wind capacity will fall below 17%.

    So either GE is very conservative or OPA is overstating actual output.

    I am also getting very tired of the ‘renewable energy’ nomenclature, which is a play on words. We should be referring to intermittent energy sources.

  2. willr2010 says:

    John:

    I think a lot of people got “sucked in” with the hype. It would explain a lot of the inflated expectations.

    Strangely enough performance figures were available before Ontario brought in the GEA. By Spring 2009 Spain was already aware of the economic devastation caused by the green energy programs they had implemented.

    Succinctly stated there was no need for this boondoggle!

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