Chapter 4.4.1: Amaranth

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Amaranth wind farm is located just west of Shelbourne Ontario.  (see details here) .

It started commercial operations Nov. 2008, but data goes back to 2006.  This is what the maximum daily output for the full range looks like in megawatts.

But within the day the output can swing wildly.  This is the spread of the daily output in mW (the intermittency).

Quite the spread in the range of daily output.

This is the monthly median, average and upper standard deviation since Jan 2009:

Notice that the best months for this location is April, with 2010 performing worse than 2009, but the summer was slightly better in 2010 than in 2009.

Skewness is the measure of how far the curve deviates from the normal.  This is what the skew looks like:

The skew is highest during the summer months, denoting that the graph of hourly output is closer to the low-end. 

Because of the very distinct changes in each season in these values, the count of the number of hours for each percent hourly name plate capacity factor is separated into the four seasons.  Data is from Jan 1, 2009 on wards.

The Y-Axis is the percent of time.  That is, each percent name plate’s hours divided by the total hours in this data range.   Example, 14% of the time in the winter there was no output at all.

All four graphs have the same Y-Axis scale for easy comparison.

Winter Output:

Spring Output:

Summer Output:

Fall Output:

Amaranth is the worst performing site.  In the summer time half the time the output is less than 12% name plate.  Even in the winter time, when wind is supposed to be better, the output is less than 21% name plate half the time.

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